For All Nails #161: The Lesson
by Jonathan Edelstein
"We will begin," said Professor Berthan Macaulay, FN3 "with last week's assignment. I trust you all have read it, although I won't examine that trust too closely." He waited for the polite laughter and continued. "Perhaps you can start us off, Mr. Samuels, by telling me exactly why I gave that assignment. And no, 'because it was relevant' won't do."
"Because you wanted us to analyze historical documents?" Samuels ventured.
"A valuable skill, document analysis," Macaulay agreed. "One of the historian's most effective tools. Finding the documents is another valuable skill, which I likewise wanted you to learn. But I'm afraid the answer I'm looking for is more specific. Why did I assign those particular documents?"
"Because they show how demographics can affect politics?"
"Very good, Mr. Samuels. At least, I certainly assigned them to show how a particular demographic factor can affect politics. I believe you will agree that it is a factor particularly relevant to many parts of the African continent. What is it, Mr. Smith?"
"I would guess that it's settlement."
"That would certainly be a sound guess, given the countries whose records I assigned. The Cape Kingdom, Natal, the Gold Republics and Victoria -- all of them nations marked by a pattern of settlement from abroad. Perhaps you can tell us, Mr. Smith, why they have continued on such different paths, and how the documents I assigned might help explain the roads they have taken."
"I'm not sure," admitted Smith. "Although, from the census records you assigned, it seems that the percentage of settlers in the population of each country played a part ... "
"Ah! Now we're on to something. There are other factors that can be obtained from the census records, and we'll get to them later, but that was the one I was hoping you'd see. Now, Mr. Taylor, perhaps you can explicate the effect this factor has had."
Taylor rose to his feet. "In the Cape, nearly all the people are descended from settlers ... "
"Go on, Mr. Taylor."
" ... which might explain why there has been so little racial tension compared to the other settler states. The original population has been almost entirely assimilated through intermarriage, to the point where more than half of all Cape citizens were described as Coloured in the 1950 census. In Victoria and the Gold Republics, the white population is smaller, and there is a much more rigid dividing line between the races ... "
"Very good. I can see that my trust in this class may even have been justified, at least for today. I'd like to expand on what you just said, though. You mentioned that the Gold Republics and Victoria have smaller settler populations than the Cape, which is quite correct. It's also significant, I believe, that the white population in all those countries is a minority. Mr. Gray, what is the significance of that?"
"They can't allow democracy," Gray answered. "At least not if they want to keep on ruling."
"Very, very good. Hence the nearly impossible income qualification for black voters in Victoria, FN4 and the outright denial of the franchise in the Gold Republics with exceptions that are too few to matter. Nevertheless, Victoria and the Gold Republics are not in the same condition today, are they, Mr. Heath?"
"There isn't any large-scale rebellion in Victoria ... "
"No, there isn't. In the Gold Republics, there is or shortly will be -- and in several of them, the rebels have made considerable gains. Does this mean, then, that some minorities have more staying power than others?"
"I'd say so. Victoria is 27 percent white, while none of the Gold Republics is over 10 percent. It's easier to overwhelm the whites in the Gold Republics."
"Ah. Then you predict victory for the rebels in Alberta?" FN5
"I guess so. It certainly does look as if time is on their side, given the white emigration rates of the past few years."
"Yes, the vicious cycle," Macaulay said. "It's good to see you can get more from the census data than numbers. Maybe I'm teaching you the tools of the trade after all. But yes, as the whites' position becomes worse, more and more of them leave, which makes their position even more untenable. We return to you, Mr. Gray. Where do they go?"
"Wherever they can?" Gray ventured. The class' laughter at his sally was considerably more genuine than at any of Macaulay's, and earned him an old-fashioned look from the professor.
"Mr. Gray's inartful words are perhaps correct," he said. "The emigrant Goldies, to use the vernacular, do go where they can -- Australia, South America, even the CNA. Most of them, though, go to Victoria, which has begun to recruit them quite actively. Can anyone tell me why?"
He looked around the classroom, ignoring Amália Gutierrez' raised hand. It was Macaulay's firm opinion, often expressed in class, that women had no business going to college, and he made it a point never to call on them. Especially not if they were Mexican boat people who adulterated the King's English with barbarous Spanish neologisms - something Gutierrez did less than many other Mexicans, but more than enough to annoy Macaulay. FN6
"Are there any volunteers? No? Then I refer you to another fact that is apparent from the census records -- the relative birth rates of the black and white populations. The white Victorians need immigrants simply to maintain their share of the population -- and with Victoria's standard of living declining relative to Europe and America, the Gold Republics are their primary source. Now, if nobody has anything else to add, we'll move on. For our next meeting, though, I would like you to focus specifically on Victoria, and write a brief essay on the relationship between Goldie immigration and the Victoria United Party's presence in the governing coalition for the first time since ... "
"Excuse me, Profesór, I do have something to add."
Macaulay stared at Gutierrez, stunned by her shocking breach of classroom etiquette. "May I remind you, Miss Gutierrez, that the stress in the word 'professor' is on the second syllable, and you've lived here quite long enough to know that. If you must have your say, though, please do so in something resembling English, and be quick about it."
"It occurs to me, Professor, that you left one country out."
"And which one might that be, Miss Gutierrez?"
"This one." She waited for a response, and got none. "Actually, the pattern seems quite clear. Creole settlers, thirty percent of the population. Tribesmen, sixty-five. FN7 The creoles are quite aware of what democracy will do to them, y the fact that fertility is on the tribes' side. Y while they can't get Goldies, they're perfectly capable of bringing in Mexican negritos."
"It's hardly fair to compare this country to Victoria, Miss Gutierrez. The tribes aren't disenfranchised ... "
"Literacy test or income qualification -- it doesn't really make any difference from their point of view, does it? The examiners failed me -- do you really think a tribesman could pass?"
"Given the level of literacy you've demonstrated in this class, Miss Gutierrez, I'd say they were quite justified."
"That might be. But you're right about one thing -- this country isn't like Victoria. At least when the Victorians recruit immigrants, they treat them like human beings ... "
"I think we've heard quite enough from you, Miss Gutierrez."
"Oh, you haven't heard from me at all. But go on, Profesór, it's your class ... "
Forward to FAN #162: Ashes and Action.
Forward to 22 November 1962: If You Lead, I Will Follow.
Return to For All Nails.