One if by Land and Two if by Sea

For All Nails #179: One if by Land and Two if by Sea

by Johnny Pez

8 January 1975

"The first rule in a war," said Alexander Elbittar to the Privy Council, "is to never fight more than one enemy at a time, unless you can't avoid it. Under current circumstances, this means that we're going to have to ignore those German missiles in Puerto Rico and direct our efforts toward defending ourselves against the British."

General Augusto Jimenez spoke up. "I don't like it. The Germans have got those babies pointed right straight at us. All they have to do is decide to touch them off, and twenty minutes later we're toast."

"I don't like it either," Elbittar answered, "but, as I say, we can only fight one enemy at a time."

"For whatever it's worth," said King Fernando, "since they re-aimed the missiles, the Germans haven't made any hostile moves. In fact, they've offered to mediate between ourselves and the British."

"Knowing full well that the British would refuse," said Elbittar. "At any rate, we have to assume that we'll be at war with the British after their demarche expires tomorrow, and plan accordingly."

Rising from the table, Elbittar walked over to a map that had been fastened to the wall, showing the Caribbean and the northern half of South America. "The British have military installations here, here, here and here." Elbittar pointed to Jamaica, Antigua, Barbados and Grenada, each closer than the last to the New Granadan coast. Grenada, the closest, was a mere 200 kilometers away, and Elbittar allowed his finger to linger there. Something like a smile appeared on his face, perhaps for the first time since the Christmas Bombing. "At first, I thought it would be necessary for us to seize control of Grenada and Barbados at least, and possibly all four, in order to forestall any British attacks. However, events have been moving in our favor. The Jamaicans have declared themselves neutral in the current crisis, and we've received reports of growing sentiment for neutrality on the other three islands. If that proves to be the case, then the British will have only three options: one, establish one or more forward assault bases in northern Brazil; two, mount an amphibious assault against us; or three, launch a submersible-based missile attack against us." The Prime Minister returned to the table and resumed his seat.

"As regards the third option," Elbittar continued, "there is little we can do beyond the current civil defense drills in the major cities." That was why the Privy Council was meeting, not in the Royal Palace, but in one of the conference rooms of the Bogotá Astor Hotel, on the city's eastern outskirts. Tomorrow's meeting would be held in the Bogotá Grand.

"Concerning the second option, Admiral Soplador de la Bocina has units of our Caribbean Fleet patrolling the coastline between Panama and the Orinoco delta. This has the added advantage of giving our crews more experience handling the fleet's newer units." Elbittar didn't bother to mention where the fleet had acquired its newer units. It was said that half the ships in the AFANG had wardrooms full of NUSM battle flags.

"And as for the first option, I've asked General Jimenez to draw up plans to move elements of the FANG into northern Brazil, with the goal of establishing a line of control along the fifteenth parallel."

"Prime Minister," said the King, "wouldn't an ... occupation of Brazil tend to conflict with your earlier statement about only fighting one enemy at a time?"

"Unless you can't avoid it," Elbittar reminded Fernando. "If the Brazilians allow themselves to be used as a staging ground for British airmobile strikes, then we must intervene for our own protection." Elbittar did not resent the King for questioning the necessity of a move into Brazil. Fernando had already kept him from making more than one blunder during the course of the current crisis. "If we can use diplomatic means to keep the Brazilians strictly neutral," he continued, "then that would naturally be preferable to the use of military force."

Fernando nodded. "As you say, Prime Minister, the Germans have indicated a desire to mediate the current crisis. Perhaps they can be prevailed upon to use their considerable influence with the Brazilian government to persuade them that neutrality would be in their own best interests." Turning to Foreign Secretary Quintana, he added, "If you wouldn't mind, Doctor, I believe that a personal appeal by myself to Ambassador Schliemann would help to expedite the process."

"Not at all, Your Majesty," said Dr. Quintana, who as usual seemed relieved to leave the Kingdom's diplomatic efforts in Fernando's hands.

I wanted a King, Elbittar mused, and I got another Foreign Secretary. And a damn good one, too! What a team we make!

Between them, perhaps they could beat the British after all.

Imperial Chancellery

Berlin, Kingdom of Prussia, Inner German Empire

9 January 1975

Even after two and a half months, Exterior Minister Joshua Merkel still wasn't used to attending meetings in the Chancellor's office. Perhaps he never would. It seemed wrong, somehow, as though he were intruding into the sacred domain of some ancient deity. Which was, he admitted to himself, a pretty strange way to regard a politician's office.

But that was the way it was working out. When some people died, you just attended their funerals, paid your respects, and then moved on with your life. With others, though, a strange sort of alchemy seemed to take hold. Being dead somehow made them more important, rather than less, than they had been during life. In the nineteenth century, it had happened after the death of Pedro Hermión; in the eighteenth, it had been the death of Thomas Jefferson.

And ever since 28 June, for reasons Merkel could not for the life of him fathom, it had been happening to Adolph Markstein. No less than four German cities had renamed themselves in his honor. Biographies of Markstein jumped up to the top of the bestseller lists, and stayed there. Popular entertainers were composing songs about him, and they became bestsellers too, and refused to disappear from the radio. The current Chancellor, David Grauer, had garnered ten minutes of continuous applause during his first speech to the Imperial Diet with the words, "and there stood Adolph Markstein, THREE METERS TALL!"

Despite this, Grauer seemed determined to distance himself from Markstein. Holding meetings in his office was one way; eschewing familiarity with his cabinet ministers was another; never appearing in public without one of his cigars was a third. Grauer insisted on being not at all like Markstein in any respect, which seemed to have the paradoxical effect of making him seem more like Markstein than any outward attempt at emulation could possibly have done.

Whatever Grauer's reasons for meeting his cabinet ministers in his office, though, when all was said and done, Merkel still found it uncomfortable. He kept expecting Markstein to jump out from behind a cabinet and demand to know what they were doing in his office. It was unnerving.

"Good morning, Herr Merkel," Grauer greeted him from behind the vast desk. "What can I do for you today?"

"I've received a very interesting communication from Herr Schliemann," said Merkel as he took a proffered seat. "It seems he had an interview with King Ferdinand last night."

Grauer paused to blow a smoke ring towards a portrait of Heinrich von Richter. "The gist of which was?"

"His Majesty wishes us to convey to the Brazilian government his belief that it would be in their interest to remain neutral in any upcoming conflict between New Granada and the United Empire." Merkel raised one eyebrow. "Strictly neutral."

The Chancellor studied the dully glowing tip of his cheroot. "Should we do this, do you think?"

"Without a doubt," said Merkel. "The only question is just how emphatic we wish to be with the Brazilians."

"So," said Grauer, "do you favor being mildly emphatic or strongly emphatic?"

"I believe that we ought to be strongly emphatic," said Merkel. "Our relationship with the Brazilians goes back nearly a century. FN1 They're our major ally in South America, and if they did allow themselves to become mixed up in a shooting war between atomic powers, the results would almost certainly be unfortunate for them. Moreover, if the British do establish a military presence there, Brazil will quickly cease being our ally and become theirs."

"I was under the impression," said Grauer, "that we were supposed to be supporting the British for the duration of the current crisis." The Chancellor blew another smoke ring.

Merkel watched as the smoke ring drifted across the office, rebounded off a map of the world, and dissolved. There's a potent metaphor there, Merkel thought, though what it's a metaphor for eludes me. To the Chancellor he said, "As long as the British restricted themselves to the provisions of the Bornholm Understanding, we did support them, as indeed we supported every other signatory nation." With a roll of the eyes, he added, "Even Scandinavia. However, the British government seems to have succumbed to what the military planners call 'mission creep.' They've gone beyond the goals of the Bornholm Understanding, and are now attempting to establish some form of military control over New Granada."

"Would that be a bad thing?" wondered Grauer.

"On the whole," said Merkel, "perhaps not. Prime Minister Elbittar was running out of control, upsetting the balance of power in that part of the world, and making the Brazilians very nervous. From our point of view, having the British slap him down and establish a permanent presence in South America would not be completely undesirable. If the British have unfettered access to Neogranadan oil, they might stop trying to pry Arabia out of our hands. And if they're busy dealing with America, they'll have less time and energy to bother us in Europe. On the other hand, the Bornholm process wasn't meant to be a springboard for British hegemonism, and it's certainly not in our interest to help the British become more powerful."

"So what you're saying," Grauer mused, "is that we don't want to help the British, but we don't want to hinder them either. So what do we want them to do?"

"From the German perspective," said Merkel, "the ideal situation would be a stable low-intensity conflict between Britain and New Granada, rather like the Australians' recent difficulties in Southeast Asia. Keep them busy snarling at each other, and they'll be too busy to make trouble for us."

"In that case," said Grauer, "it seems to me that keeping the British out of Brazil might not be wise after all. If we make it harder for them to launch a conventional attack on New Granada, won't that make them more likely to resort to atomic weapons?"

"They might if we permitted them to," said Merkel with a smile, "but I don't think we will. The Scandies would certainly oppose first use of atomic weapons against New Granada, and probably the Siamese as well. That would leave the British with the choice of either restricting themselves to conventional weapons, or breaking up the Bornholm coalition. If they choose the latter course, then we can dissociate ourselves from the conflict, and leave the British to stew in their own juices."

"That seems a bit cold-blooded," Grauer observed. "I thought you Merkelites were supposed to be the moderate wing of the Germany Party."

"We are the moderates," said Merkel. "Voth's people wanted us to attack our enemies. We're content to allow our enemies to attack each other."

"All the same," said Grauer, "I have my doubts about the wisdom of all this. There are always unintended consequences. It might yet backfire on us."

"We've done well out of it so far," Merkel pointed out. "First the British ended their alliance with New Granada, then they alienated the North Americans, and now they're doing the same to the West Indians. And when the dust finally settles, you know who's going be sitting there, waiting to pick up the pieces? Us, that's who.

"Imagine the possibilities, Herr Chancellor. You've been telling me since October what an infernal nuisance it is to keep those missiles in Boricua. After this crisis ends, we can offer a deal to the North Americans -- we sign on to their Atomic-Free Caribbean Agreement and withdraw the missiles from Boricua, and in return they lower their trade barriers to the Zollverein. The very thought will have Frau Blücher salivating. FN2

"Perhaps we can even supplant the British militarily. After all, the North Americans will still be looking to improve their military capabilities. Who better to show them how than the people who beat them at Moca?"

Merkel paused to watch yet another smoke ring drift across the office, this one impacting against a portrait of Karl Ollenhauer. "I tell you, Herr Chancellor, the future is looking brighter than it has in ten years. And we owe it all to Herr Mercator. It's a pity we can't award him the Iron Cross -- he's certainly earned it."

Grauer frowned. "You don't suppose the North Americans will get into a war with the British, do you?"

Merkel shook his head. "No chance of that, I think. However much Herr Skinner might dislike the British intrusion into American affairs, he isn't going to fight to keep them out." Looking thoughtful, the Exterior Minister added, "On the other hand, if the British make the North Americans angry enough, perhaps they'll declare independence again."

Forward to FAN #180 (American War): Interruption.

Forward to 9 January 1975: The Horror, Whatever.

Forward to New Granada: Arma Superior.

Forward to Germany: Such Sweet Sorrow.

Return to For All Nails.